The Vikings must decide whether to keep QB Sam Darnold or move on. With J.J. McCarthy waiting in the wings, a big contract may not fit Minnesota’s long-term plans.
Minnesota Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensaah has a long offseason checklist, but deciding Sam Darnold’s future is at the top.
Darnold, who played the 2024 season on a one-year, $10 million deal, led the Vikings to a 14-3 record and earned his first Pro Bowl nod. Now, he’s poised for a huge payday in free agency unless Minnesota uses the franchise tag before March 4.
Darnold’s Market Value
If Darnold hits free agency, ESPN’s Dan Graziano projects he could land a three-year, $120 million deal with $75 million guaranteed, putting him among the top 15 highest-paid quarterbacks in the NFL. That’s a big raise, and Graziano believes the Vikings won’t match that offer. The Vikings have talked about bringing Darnold back, even with 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy waiting in the wings to take over as the long-term starter at some point. (McCarthy first has to recover from his season-ending knee injury.) They could franchise-tag him (roughly $40 million) with the intent of keeping him or possibly trading him, but odds are the market is going to offer Darnold more than Minnesota can afford. The Raiders, Giants, Jets, Steelers, Browns, Titans and Saints are among the teams that either will or could find themselves looking for a new quarterback this offseason. The Vikings can pay receiver Justin Jefferson $35 million per year in part because it’s anticipating operating on McCarthy’s rookie deal. And in the end, they probably end up letting Darnold hit the market, where he should be able to command a deal in line with the three-year, $100 million deal that Baker Mayfield got from the Buccaneers a year ago — though it would be adjusted upward based on inflation and market demand.
Teams like the Raiders, Giants, Jets, Steelers, Browns, Titans, and Saints could all be in the market for a quarterback this offseason, driving up his value.
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Vikings’ Cap Challenges
Minnesota already has big contracts on the books, including Justin Jefferson’s expected $35 million per year extension. Other key players like RB Aaron Jones, CB Byron Murphy Jr., and S Cam Bynum will also need new deals. With 25 impending free agents and a need to upgrade the interior offensive line, giving Darnold a massive contract could be tough to justify.
With J.J. McCarthy recovering from a knee injury but expected to take over as the long-term starter, the Vikings may be ready to move on from Darnold. However, they’ll want to maximize their asset.
A sign-and-trade scenario using the franchise tag—similar to what the Patriots did with Matt Cassel in 2009—is an option. But at the price Darnold is projected to command, it’s looking more likely that he’ll be playing elsewhere in 2025.
The Vikings’ quarterback decision will shape their entire offseason, and all signs point to a new era in Minnesota.
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